Aoun’s Quest for 3rd Way (The Impossible):Antagonizing Loyalists & Harmonizing with Protestors

By Mahmoud Raya
----------------
“There will be no war as long as those who can cause it do not want it.”

After reiterating this rule from more than one political and informative platform, Michel Aoun recently uttered a different conspicuous phrase, “… But the situation is critical; and there are parties inside the government that push the situation in the direction of explosion and they are inciting for war. On the other hand, those outside the government are the ones who are preventing this war.”

The Free Patriotic Movement is trying to take a “third way” on the domestic arena. It is declaring through its stances, movements, and meetings, that it is exerting efforts to expand threads of dialogue with everyone in a way where no one will regard it as siding with this or that trend, or even backing a certain viewpoint while ignoring other viewpoints hat are reacting the level of confliction on the arena. Will Aoun and his movement succeed in their quest?


Some observers of the current events are saying that Aoun trend could not in any case find a way out of the complexity of antagonism towards the loyalists’ current in Lebanon. This antagonism is based on two major constants that cannot be ignored or ridiculed:

The first constant is represented by the vicious competition, which is loaded with unforgettable historic moments against the Lebanese Forces that represent today one of the “pillars” of the governing coalition that includes Future current and Junblat-led Democratic assembly.

The troubles that take place everyday between the two parties in more than one region, university, school and neighborhood are too big to be hidden from the media that tells part of what is occurring. Meanwhile, the larger portion of the events is being “obscured” from the media to prevent further tension that may lead to explosion.

The problem in the competition between the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces lies in the fact that it does not stop at the boundaries of the present reality. Instead, it obtains its strength from a bloody history, times when blood poured on the Lebanese land like no other battle. This fact steers forward towards an unperceivable future as long as these two currents “monopolize” to a great extent the Christian representation in Mount Lebanon.

The second constant that incites Aoun antagonism towards the ruling loyalists is represented by the movement’s rejection in “joining” these loyalists on the basis of maintaining the decision under the control of the other party. Aoun leadership stressed continuously that it has been invited to this issue. In other words, what the movement must do in reaching an understanding with the “majority” is that it must obey the decision of this majority without solving any of the problems that established the past state of antagonism, such as: the parliamentary elections which snatched the complete victory from the movement in the mountain and north; discussing the formation of a government where it was suggested that Aoun current would be granted some of the marginal ministries without any participation in the decision making; and lastly the violent opposition through which the name of Brigadier Michel Aoun will be proposed for the presidency. One must not forget “tsunami” and the statements that targeted Aoun current. The intensity of such statements did not ease even during the stage of the “majority” appeasement towards Aoun current, as an act of executing the will of the US embassy in Awkar.

Therefore, it seems that the US embassy efforts in gathering the forces of March 14 were blown to the wind, especially after Aoun himself declared his rejection of the proposals of some people, which aim to form a front in order to execute the remaining issues of resolution 1559.

Why does Aoun refuse the formation of a front to execute this resolution for which he exerted efforts as he confirmed repeatedly?

The general of Rabye answered this question himself by saying he will not accept “but the suggestion of a circle of dialogue that will lead to an acceptable and honorable solution for all the parties.”

For what kind of dialogue is brigadier Aoun calling while great initiatives on a regional level were unable until now to infiltrate the state of the American rejection, which would lead the Lebanese parties to harmony regarding the disputed causes?

This call seems like declaration of a fundamental stance, more than being a real roadmap towards a solution. This issue renders general Aoun face the dilemma of choosing between staying completely neutral in the current conflict or “fully coordinate” with the other party of the Lebanese equation, which is Hizbullah and Amal movement, despite the continuing misunderstanding regarding a number of causes.

The equation seems difficult. But one must observe the presence of the two MPs of the Reform and Change bloc, Mr. Salim Aoun and Mr. Abbas Hashim, who attended the ceremony in honoring the graduates of the educational recruitment of Hizbullah. There is also Aoun’s speech himself about the past case of the foreign hostages in Lebanon, where he regarded that “they were not angels, but they were spies holding diplomatic or academic ranks,” with his confirmation to solve the issue of the resistance arms internally.

All these facts tell us that the Free Patriotic Movement is fully aware of its actions and is making its moves with accuracy, especially with the approaching entitlements that concern above all Aoun current itself. On top of these entitlements are the by-elections that will take place in Baabda-Aley.

Does this mean that Aoun current has concluded its choices on the practical field but with preserving the image of neutrality in the media regarding the pulls back and forth on the Lebanese arena?

The answer to this question lurks in the choices which Aoun current will propose to exit the crisis which Lebanon encounters. It is represented by the formation of a government of national consensus, or by conducting early elections. Only the coalition of Amal-Hizbullah agrees with it regarding this issue. Meanwhile, they are facing a heavy fire, which “aims to kill,” from the currents of the loyalists with all of their stratums.